EURUSD

The main determinant for the EUR/USD pair continues to be the divergence in monetary policy expectations between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB). Markets are pricing in that the ECB will cut rates earlier than the Fed. This expectation creates a fundamental pressure on the Euro. This week, inflation and retail sales data from the U.S. will determine the short-term direction of the Dollar. Weak data could ease the Dollar, providing some relief to the pair, while strong data would increase the downward pressure on the pair. For a sustained rise in the pair, the ECB needs to become more hawkish or there must be clear signals of a slowdown in the U.S. economy.

NATO defence ministers seek more arms for Ukraine as Western military support fades

A recent series of mysterious drone incursions and airspace violations by Russian war planes has fuelled concerns that President Vladimir Putin might be testing NATO’s defensive reflexes.

NATO defence ministers will meet later on Wednesday to try to drum up more military support for Ukraine amid a sharp drop in deliveries of weapons and ammunition in recent months to the war-torn country still fighting off Russia's full-scale invasion.The ministers will also debate a call from NATO's chief to lift restrictions on the use of their aircraft and other equipment so they can be used to defend t...

Could Ukraine be next? Trump to focus on Russia after securing ceasefire in Gaza

The US president said on Monday that he now wants to focus on Russia and its war against Ukraine. After months of diplomatic efforts, can Trump repeat his peacemaking success and put an end to Moscow’s war on Ukraine? Kyiv certainly hopes so.

US President Donald Trump said he plans to focus on ending Russia's war against Ukraine, now that phase one of his Gaza ceasefire deal is its final stages.Monday saw Hamas release all 20 living Israeli hostages while Israel freed almost 2,000 Palestinians that had been held in its prisons. This after both sides agreed to end hostilities on 10 October....

WTIUSD

Crude oil prices are under pressure due to signals of a slowdown in the global economy and the possible negative effects on oil demand. Weak economic data from China and strong production outside of OPEC+ keep concerns about an oversupply in the spotlight. Today's release of the weekly Crude Oil Inventory data will be significant for the market's near-term direction. An unexpected increase in inventories could reinforce demand concerns, increasing selling pressure on WTI prices. For now, price increases remain limited to geopolitical risk news.

Israel keeps Rafah crossing closed to Gaza aid delivery as Hamas returns four more bodies

While Trump expresses optimism over a ceasefire, fighting continues on the ground leaving more Palestinians dead and little progress in talks. Rafah remains closed, and Gaza’s future remains uncertain.

The announced peace agreement for Gaza is already showing clear signs of fragility. Hours after US President Donald Trump's triumphant declarations in Sharm el-Sheikh, the situation in the Gaza Strip continues to worsen: new attacks and casualties, and the Rafah crossing remaining closed paint a starkly different picture from the official optimism.Hamas returned, on Tuesday night, the bodies...

DAXEUR

The market is strongly pricing in that the ECB will begin its interest rate cutting cycle earlier than the Federal Reserve. This situation could actually serve as a positive catalyst for the DAX index, composed of export-oriented German companies, while weakening the Euro against other currencies. A declining Euro makes German products more competitive in the international market, which has the potential to increase companies' revenues and profitability. However, on the other hand, concerns about economic slowdown and recession, which are the primary reasons for interest rate cuts, could act as a pressure factor on corporate profitability, pulling the index down.

NATO chief Mark Rutte mocks Russia over 'limping' submarine in English Channel

The Russian submarine Novorossiysk had surfaced off the coast of France last week and was later escorted by the Dutch navy in the North Sea.

NATO chief Mark Rutte has mocked Russia over a "broken" submarine that surfaced off the coast of France last week."Now, in effect, there is hardly any Russian naval presence in the Mediterranean left. There's a lone and broken Russian submarine limping home from patrol," he said during a speech in Slovenia on Monday.Russia's Black Sea Fleet denied the submarine had surfaced because of a malfunction, instead claiming it was complying with navigation ru...

NDXUSD

The NASDAQ 100 index, which is heavily weighted in technology stocks, will be quite sensitive to the Fed's monetary policy signals this week. The general consensus in the market is that the Fed has now ended its rate hike cycle due to signs of economic slowdown and controlled inflation. If the Producer Price Index (PPI) and tomorrow's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data come in line with or lower than expectations, it would strengthen this belief and increase the expectation that rate cuts could begin sooner. This situation could act as a positive catalyst for growth-oriented technology companies, potentially raising the index. It can be said that the index maintains its upward potential, especially under the leadership of companies in the artificial intelligence and semiconductor sectors.