Sardis Global
Research Department

The pair starts the last trading day of the week under pressure as the dollar gains value globally following strong US unemployment data from yesterday. After conflicting signals from the US economy throughout the week, today's release of the Fed's preferred inflation measure, the Core PCE Price Index, will be the main factor determining the pair's weekly closing. An inflation figure exceeding expectations (2.9%) could strengthen the expectation that the Fed will maintain its hawkish stance, deepening the selling in the pair.

The precious metal declined against rising bond yields and a strengthening Dollar following the US unemployment claims data, which was significantly below expectations and indicated a strong labor market. Markets are focused on the final arbitrator Core PCE inflation data to be released today, after mixed employment signals throughout the week. Data indicating a sticky inflation outlook has the potential to strengthen the perception that the Fed may delay interest rate cuts, increasing pressure on Gold, which does not yield interest.

Oil prices are trying to find direction amid conflicting signals from weak employment data that raised demand concerns earlier in the week and strong unemployment figures from yesterday. Markets are focused on the final signals that today's release of the U.S. Core PCE data will provide regarding the direction of the global economy and, consequently, the outlook for oil demand. High inflation could create pressure on oil prices by increasing concerns that the Fed will maintain a tight stance at the cost of slowing growth.

The German index has retreated to await the US Core PCE inflation data, which will be the main determinant of global risk appetite on the last trading day of the week. The strong US employment data released yesterday strengthened expectations that the Fed will not be hasty in cutting interest rates, putting some pressure on the stock markets. A hot inflation figure that exceeds expectations, to be released today, could reignite "hawkish Fed" concerns globally and trigger sales in the export-oriented DAX index.

The finale of the technology index for the week will be determined by the Core PCE inflation data, which will be released today and plays a key role in the Fed's monetary policy decisions. Rising bond yields following yesterday's strong employment data have created some pressure on interest rate-sensitive technology stocks, while a cooling in inflation today could reverse this pressure. A data point that falls below expectations has the potential to create a perception that the Fed is closer to a loosening cycle, potentially initiating a relief rally in the index.